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Initially, Trump gave the impression to embrace a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "serious repercussions" last August if Russia's president carried on hindering truce talks, he finally introduced major penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, these major energy companies. This action substantially impacted Putin's ability to support his aggression in the region.

Yet, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, that was created by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or European participation, the former president has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's proposal would essentially reward Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Although bold declarations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the plan effectively undermine that same sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business past, the former president persists to view the war as a mere border issue, like ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a charred swath of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to weaken it so it stops acts as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his deepening authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Surrenders

While maintaining in position the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. Beyond favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been failed to occupy in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would render Ukrainian defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that represent a critical impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, providing Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital in case he later opt to restart the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would enable future fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of six hundred thousand. Notably, the plan places no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, the proposal declares: "Any radical doctrine and actions must be condemned and forbidden." As if to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has breached comparable accords in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied territory in the region to the government – why should anyone have confidence in Russia now?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on western security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive unified defense action" should Russia renew its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics include fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not only block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Response

A separate side agreement reportedly would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. But unlike a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to react with force to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not