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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the current field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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