Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
