Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
